Final Predictions, Final Thoughts

by Alex Knepper

Here we are! It has been an exhausting campaign season, but I am proud of the work we have done at New American Perspective. Cinzia and I have had some spirited debates, and I think we have gotten a lot more right than we have gotten wrong. Here is my final prediction:

Clinton 50 Trump 45 Johnson 4 Stein/Others 1

prediction

VA: Clinton +8 – WI: Clinton +7 – MI: Clinton +6
CO: Clinton +6 – NH: Clinton +5 – NV: Clinton +5
PA: Clinton +5 – FL: Clinton +2 – NC: Clinton +1
OH: Trump +1 – IA: Trump +2 – AZ: Trump +2
GA: Trump +3 – UT: Trump +8

Like many of the pundits at whom I rolled my eyes during the primary season, I badly misread the mood of the country. A comprehensive postmortem is forthcoming…

Today, I anticipate that America will smash the nationalist personality cult of Donald J. Trump. And when we do, we should not indulge the desire to issue phony, faux-gracious bromides about setting aside our differences after a difficult campaign season. The differences between the two nominees are as stark as they have been in 50 years. This election cycle played out like a war, and those who thought it would be a good idea to put an American Caesar in power should not be simply rewarded. We must consider the prudence of Lincoln and remember that there can be no compromise on the fundamentals. Threatening to disrupt the peaceful transition of power, threatening to imprison the opposition, promising to commit war crimes, using cruelty and humiliation as tools of debate, and scapegoating minorities and foreigners are never permissible in a liberal democracy. After this demoralizing, draining, long, ugly slog, we will be able to exhale. But we will not be able to just make nice and come together. That does not mean that the issues of immigration, trade, and political correctness should be suppressed or ignored — but it does mean that we should not reflexively move in a more populist direction to try to appease a movement that was fueled on anger and resentment.

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Why We Were Right About Trump

By Alex Knepper

Punditry contains an element of competition. There are thousands of prophesying scribblers out there, and political observers trying to make sense of what’s going on can only be expected to keep up with the thoughts of a handful. As relative newcomers to the arena, one must reasonably ask: Why read the New American Perspective rather than some other website?

Needless to say, this election season has humbled many pundits, including some marquee names. The New American Perspective is one of the only publications whose predictions about the Republican primary season were almost entirely correct — living up to our promise of clear-minded analysis, free of wishful thinking. Although it’s probably not possible to eliminate the elements of gloating or bragging from reviewing the ways in which one was correct — well, let us review:

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